Topic
prediction-markets
35 stories
Gemini's Q3: revenue down 19%, trading volume off 73%, losses narrowing on cost cuts
Gemini reported $40.9 million in Q3 revenue, down 19% year over year as trading volume fell 73%, while a narrower $58.6 million net loss reflected deep cost cuts.
Coinbase's Q3 profit jumps 66% — but a crypto-holdings gain does most of the lifting
Coinbase posted $719 million in Q3 net income, up 66% year over year, but most of the jump came from a $715 million mark-to-market gain on its own crypto holdings as revenue fell 35% from a year earlier.
Polymarket freezes trading after third-party breach drains ~$2.7M from users — the second in five months
Polymarket halted trading on its international venue on October 29 after an attacker drained roughly $2.5 million to $2.7 million from user accounts, blaming a compromised third-party provider — its second such breach in five months.
Robinhood's crypto line grew 20% last quarter — all of it from the new chain
Robinhood's third-quarter crypto revenue rose 20% from the prior quarter to $120 million, but the entire gain came from its new Arbitrum-based blockchain, while underlying trading revenue fell and prediction markets outearned crypto for another quarter.
CFTC Sues Utah to Block State Enforcement Against Prediction Markets
The CFTC sued Utah on October 27, 2026 to block state enforcement actions against CFTC-registered prediction markets, part of a broader fight the agency says now spans ten states.
CFTC and NBA Sign Information-Sharing Deal Over Basketball Prediction Markets
The CFTC and the NBA signed a memorandum of understanding to share information on basketball-related prediction markets, following similar deals the agency struck with MLB and the NHL.
Kalshi CEO says a loss to states would push prediction markets offshore, not to a federal regulator
Kalshi CEO Tarek Mansour told DC Fintech Week that prediction markets will move offshore if U.S. courts grant states gambling authority over them, as federal appeals courts split and New Jersey asks the Supreme Court to weigh in.
CFTC Moves to Classify Event Contracts as "Swaps," Claiming Exclusive Jurisdiction
The CFTC proposed a rule on October 9 that would expressly define sports, political, cultural, and weather event contracts as "swaps," asserting exclusive federal jurisdiction over the fast-growing prediction markets.
CFTC Carves Casino-Style Gambling Out of the "Swap" Definition
The CFTC published an interim final rule on October 9, 2026, codifying that casino-style gambling products, including sportsbook and casino wagers, fall outside the legal definition of a "swap" and thus outside its derivatives remit.
Kalshi denies CFTC investigation, calls repetitive ether trades a liquidity-program artifact
Kalshi says the CFTC has not contacted it and no formal examination exists, disputing WSJ reporting that regulators were reviewing near-identical trades in its ether perpetual market.
CFTC staff warns on "mention markets," citing manipulation risk in bets on what people say
The CFTC's Division of Market Oversight issued a staff advisory on September 22, 2026, warning that "mention market" event contracts carry a heightened manipulation risk and outlining limited conditions for listing them.
Kalshi's crypto perps draw wash-trading accusations; its product lead says the volume math is being misread
A quant analyst accused Kalshi's new crypto perpetual futures of wash trading, citing a 174-to-1 volume-to-open-interest ratio and repetitive $5,500 trades; Kalshi's product lead said the figures reflect a standard payout-based volume convention, not fake activity.
Clarity Act's Senate Odds Crater as Both Sides Deadlock Hours Before Cloture Vote
The Clarity Act's near-term prospects collapsed on prediction markets Tuesday as Republicans rejected Democrats' counteroffer hours before a Senate cloture vote, with Polymarket's odds for 2026 passage falling to 14% from about 30% a day earlier.
Betting Markets Turn Bullish on the Clarity Act. A Cloture Vote — and the Math — Say Not So Fast
Prediction-market odds on the U.S. Clarity Act jumped ahead of a Tuesday Senate cloture vote, even as a TD Cowen analyst kept passage chances at 25% and 17 state attorneys general urged senators to reject it.
Kalshi hands George Santos its first-ever lifetime ban for betting on himself
Kalshi permanently banned former U.S. Representative George Santos and fined him roughly $71,000 for trading on, and making misleading public statements about, his own attendance at Trump's State of the Union address.
Ninth Circuit says Nevada can regulate Kalshi's sports contracts, splitting with an earlier ruling and pointing toward the Supreme Court
The Ninth Circuit ruled on August 28 that Nevada's gaming laws likely apply to Kalshi's sports event contracts, rejecting the argument that federal commodities regulation preempts the state and deepening a court split over who governs prediction markets.
Kalshi's Form D shows $1.12 billion sold since April — and $380 million still unsold
A Form D filed Tuesday with the SEC shows prediction market Kalshi has sold $1.12 billion of equity since April 3, with roughly $380 million left unsold under the same notice.
CFTC chair sets Aug. 20 debut for Innovation Advisory Committee, with no roster or agenda attached
CFTC Chairman Mike Selig said on Aug. 18 that the agency's Innovation Advisory Committee meets for the first time on Aug. 20, offering no roster, agenda or public meeting notice.
CFTC staff tells exchanges their prediction-market incentive filings aren't good enough
The CFTC's Division of Market Oversight told exchanges on August 12 that a growing number of self-certified market-maker and incentive-program filings for event contracts are arriving with procedural or substantive defects.
CFTC declares a market emergency at Kalshi's request — and orders the exchange to keep trading
The CFTC invoked emergency authority on August 11 to order Kalshi to keep operating, twelve days after New York's attorney general sued to bar the exchange's event contracts nationwide and sought more than $36 billion.
Judge to Coinbase on prediction-market preemption: 'applesauce'
A federal judge in Michigan refused to shield Coinbase from state gambling enforcement over sports event contracts, calling the exchange's federal-preemption arguments "applesauce.
The World Cup's $20 billion prediction-market number is real. The framing around it isn't.
Chainalysis says the 2026 World Cup drove $20 billion in prediction market volume across 400,000 wallets, but only $5.7 billion of it landed during the tournament, and the firm hasn't said which platforms it counted.
CFTC fines George Santos $35,000 for trading an event contract on whether he would show up to the State of the Union
The CFTC settled with former Rep. George Santos on July 31 over trades in a Kalshi event contract on his own State of the Union attendance, imposing disgorgement, a penalty and a three-year trading ban.
CFTC tells prediction markets to stop filing cookie-cutter event contracts
The CFTC issued a second advisory in recent months warning prediction-market operators like Kalshi and Polymarket to stop filing broad, template-style event-contract self-certifications instead of detailing each product.
CFTC tells exchanges to stop bundling event contracts into one catch-all filing
The CFTC's Division of Market Oversight told exchanges on July 24, 2026 to stop filing broad, template-style self-certifications that bundle many event-contract variations into a single filing, saying the practice blocks proper review.
Hyperliquid to open prediction-market deployment to anyone — for a 500,000 HYPE stake
Hyperliquid says a coming update to its HIP-4 upgrade will let anyone deploy prediction markets on the exchange, requiring a 500,000 HYPE stake that validators can slash for bad settlement.
Trump Media to sell traders an early peek at Trump's Truth Social posts
Trump Media said it will sell trading firms millisecond-early access to Truth Social posts, including President Trump's, as a legal ethics expert called the plan "brazen corruption.
CFTC Overrides Michigan Court, Orders Kalshi to Settle Cancelled Trades
The CFTC on July 14 stayed a KalshiEX emergency rule change and invoked emergency authority to force the exchange to settle trades a Michigan court had ordered cancelled, escalating a national fight over who regulates prediction markets.
Prediction markets hit $50B in World Cup's first month as sportsbook apps fade
Prediction markets Kalshi, Polymarket and Robinhood's Rothera cleared a combined $50 billion in monthly volume during the 2026 World Cup's first month, drawing first-time and female bettors as traditional sportsbook apps faded.
Gondor plans to let Polymarket users borrow against their whole portfolio to place bigger bets
Polymarket-focused startup Gondor says its v1 product will let users cross-margin their entire prediction-market portfolio to place leveraged bets, with a private test next week and a public launch targeted for September.
U.S. wallets traded $571M on Polymarket's political markets — despite being banned from the platform
On-chain analysis firm Allium found U.S.-linked wallets traded about $571 million on Polymarket's political markets over the past year — the largest national share — despite the platform being barred from serving American users.
Coinbase's Q1 update leads with market share and 'annualized' product metrics — and skips the bottom line
Coinbase's Q1 2026 press release touts an 8.6% all-time-high trading market share and fast-growing derivatives, prediction markets and stablecoin volumes — but discloses no total revenue or net income, and calls the quarter's market "softer.
CFTC proposes new data-reporting rules for event contracts, opens public comment
The CFTC published a proposed rule on June 25 seeking public comment on new data-reporting requirements for certain event contracts, amending Parts 15, 16, and 17 of its regulations.
CFTC Escalates Multi-State War Over Prediction Markets, Suing Kentucky and New Mexico to Assert Exclusive Federal Jurisdiction
The CFTC has gone on the offensive, suing New Mexico and Kentucky in federal court to assert exclusive federal jurisdiction over prediction markets like Kalshi against state gaming laws.
CFTC moves to replace its 2017 prediction-market "band-aids" with actual rules
The CFTC issued two June rulemaking proposals to replace nine years of informal no-action letters governing prediction markets with formal rules on reporting and on vetting sports and gaming contracts for the public interest.