Topic
prediction-markets
16 stories
CFTC declares a market emergency at Kalshi's request — and orders the exchange to keep trading
The CFTC invoked emergency authority on August 11 to order Kalshi to keep operating, twelve days after New York's attorney general sued to bar the exchange's event contracts nationwide and sought more than $36 billion.
Judge to Coinbase on prediction-market preemption: 'applesauce'
A federal judge in Michigan refused to shield Coinbase from state gambling enforcement over sports event contracts, calling the exchange's federal-preemption arguments "applesauce.
The World Cup's $20 billion prediction-market number is real. The framing around it isn't.
Chainalysis says the 2026 World Cup drove $20 billion in prediction market volume across 400,000 wallets, but only $5.7 billion of it landed during the tournament, and the firm hasn't said which platforms it counted.
CFTC fines George Santos $35,000 for trading an event contract on whether he would show up to the State of the Union
The CFTC settled with former Rep. George Santos on July 31 over trades in a Kalshi event contract on his own State of the Union attendance, imposing disgorgement, a penalty and a three-year trading ban.
CFTC tells prediction markets to stop filing cookie-cutter event contracts
The CFTC issued a second advisory in recent months warning prediction-market operators like Kalshi and Polymarket to stop filing broad, template-style event-contract self-certifications instead of detailing each product.
CFTC tells exchanges to stop bundling event contracts into one catch-all filing
The CFTC's Division of Market Oversight told exchanges on July 24, 2026 to stop filing broad, template-style self-certifications that bundle many event-contract variations into a single filing, saying the practice blocks proper review.
Hyperliquid to open prediction-market deployment to anyone — for a 500,000 HYPE stake
Hyperliquid says a coming update to its HIP-4 upgrade will let anyone deploy prediction markets on the exchange, requiring a 500,000 HYPE stake that validators can slash for bad settlement.
Trump Media to sell traders an early peek at Trump's Truth Social posts
Trump Media said it will sell trading firms millisecond-early access to Truth Social posts, including President Trump's, as a legal ethics expert called the plan "brazen corruption.
CFTC Overrides Michigan Court, Orders Kalshi to Settle Cancelled Trades
The CFTC on July 14 stayed a KalshiEX emergency rule change and invoked emergency authority to force the exchange to settle trades a Michigan court had ordered cancelled, escalating a national fight over who regulates prediction markets.
Prediction markets hit $50B in World Cup's first month as sportsbook apps fade
Prediction markets Kalshi, Polymarket and Robinhood's Rothera cleared a combined $50 billion in monthly volume during the 2026 World Cup's first month, drawing first-time and female bettors as traditional sportsbook apps faded.
Gondor plans to let Polymarket users borrow against their whole portfolio to place bigger bets
Polymarket-focused startup Gondor says its v1 product will let users cross-margin their entire prediction-market portfolio to place leveraged bets, with a private test next week and a public launch targeted for September.
U.S. wallets traded $571M on Polymarket's political markets — despite being banned from the platform
On-chain analysis firm Allium found U.S.-linked wallets traded about $571 million on Polymarket's political markets over the past year — the largest national share — despite the platform being barred from serving American users.
Coinbase's Q1 update leads with market share and 'annualized' product metrics — and skips the bottom line
Coinbase's Q1 2026 press release touts an 8.6% all-time-high trading market share and fast-growing derivatives, prediction markets and stablecoin volumes — but discloses no total revenue or net income, and calls the quarter's market "softer.
CFTC proposes new data-reporting rules for event contracts, opens public comment
The CFTC published a proposed rule on June 25 seeking public comment on new data-reporting requirements for certain event contracts, amending Parts 15, 16, and 17 of its regulations.
CFTC Escalates Multi-State War Over Prediction Markets, Suing Kentucky and New Mexico to Assert Exclusive Federal Jurisdiction
The CFTC has gone on the offensive, suing New Mexico and Kentucky in federal court to assert exclusive federal jurisdiction over prediction markets like Kalshi against state gaming laws.
CFTC moves to replace its 2017 prediction-market "band-aids" with actual rules
The CFTC issued two June rulemaking proposals to replace nine years of informal no-action letters governing prediction markets with formal rules on reporting and on vetting sports and gaming contracts for the public interest.