Kalshi CEO says a loss to states would push prediction markets offshore, not to a federal regulator
Kalshi CEO Tarek Mansour told DC Fintech Week that prediction markets will move offshore if U.S. courts grant states gambling authority over them, as federal appeals courts split and New Jersey asks the Supreme Court to weigh in.
Tarek Mansour, CEO of prediction-markets firm Kalshi, used a Washington stage on Wednesday to reframe the legal fight over his industry: the question, he said, is not whether states or the federal government regulate event contracts, but whether the business stays in the United States at all.
"It's not a choice of state versus federal market. It's a choice of whether prediction markets exist in the U.S. or whether they go offshore," Mansour said at the DC Fintech Week event near Washington, according to CoinDesk, which covered his remarks. He added that Kalshi feels "pretty good about where we stand overall."
The dispute turns on who polices event contracts — including the fast-growing sports category. A list of states has sued Kalshi and other firms, arguing the contracts are illegal sports wagering that belongs to state gambling regulators. Kalshi and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, which oversees its exchange, counter that the CFTC is the sole appropriate watchdog. Per CoinDesk, federal appellate courts have split — one major ruling for Kalshi, two for the states — and New Jersey has asked the Supreme Court to take the case. The National Football League is among groups that have weighed in with the court.
Mansour rejected the argument that sports contracts lack the economic consequence that would justify federal commodities treatment, calling that notion "ludicrous." He described the Commodity Exchange Act as a "truly beautiful statute" that had stretched from agricultural futures to oil, metals and swaps.
He also addressed accusations, circulating on X, that Kalshi has inflated trading volume in its bitcoin and ether perpetual-futures markets. Critics pointed to recurring fixed trade sizes making up a large share of volume; Mansour attributed those to fixed-size orders from market makers and said "there's a lot of crazy" online. "Maybe the broader point about this is how much people misunderstand markets," he said.
Key facts
- Appellate courts have split 1–2: one major ruling for Kalshi, two backing the states (CoinDesk, citing the court record).
- New Jersey has petitioned the U.S. Supreme Court to hear the case; the NFL is among parties that have filed views (CoinDesk).
- Last week the CFTC issued one rule and proposed another to fold event contracts into the "swaps" definition it polices, not state gambling regulators (CoinDesk).
- Mansour denied volume inflation in Kalshi's BTC and ETH perpetuals, citing market-maker fixed-size orders (CoinDesk).
The real-world read
Mansour's "offshore" framing is advocacy, not a court finding — it is the position of an interested party arguing its own case on the eve of a possible Supreme Court fight, and should be read that way. Two of three appellate rulings have gone against him, which sits awkwardly beside "pretty good." His volume rebuttal is an assertion, not evidence: he offered an explanation for the recurring trade sizes but no data to settle it, and the underlying question stays open. Note too that the CFTC, his own regulator, is moving quickly to cement the very authority Kalshi is relying on — a convenient alignment worth watching.
This is news coverage, not financial or legal advice.
Sources
- CoinDesk (reputable secondary) — Mansour's DC Fintech Week remarks, the appellate split, New Jersey's Supreme Court petition, NFL involvement, the CFTC rulemaking, and the volume-inflation exchange. CoinDesk attributed the court outcomes to the public record and the remarks to the live event. No marketing or sponsored content was used from the report.