Brazilian companies rushed into stablecoins as Lula's upset win hammered the real
Brazilian firms piled into dollar-pegged stablecoins and bitcoin on Oct. 25 as Lula's upset runoff win sent the real and stocks tumbling the next day, with corporate accounts driving most of the trading.
When incumbent Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva unexpectedly beat Flávio Bolsonaro in Brazil's Oct. 25 runoff, companies turned to crypto to hedge their treasuries while traditional markets were closed, according to CoinDesk, citing data from exchange Mercado Bitcoin (MB).
On MB, volume in Tether's dollar-pegged USDT jumped nearly 800% versus the prior Sunday — and more than triple the average of the four preceding Sundays — while bitcoin volume rose 865%, the exchange said. Corporate accounts generated 78% of the day's trading; retail made up just 22%. MB says its corporate clients can hold up to 15% of their assets on the platform.
The move extended beyond MB. Biscoint, which tracks volume across 10 venues including Binance, logged USDT/BRL turnover up 150% and USDC up 318% versus the previous Sunday. On Binance, BTC/BRL rose 370% even as the global BTC/USDT pair fell 25%. Into Monday, combined USDT and USDC turnover hit 1.84 billion reais (about $350 million), 65% above the prior week, while bitcoin trading rose more than ninefold to 1,336 BTC. Bitcoin gained 9.4% against the real but slipped 0.2% against USDT — a repricing of the currency, not of bitcoin.
The hedge paid off. On Monday the Ibovespa fell 14%, its worst day since March 2020, and the dollar jumped more than 8% against the real, its largest daily gain since 1999. Three weeks earlier, when Bolsonaro led the first round, the index had risen 7.7% and the real had strengthened over 4%. Lula is the first candidate in Brazil's modern democracy to win after finishing second in the first round; the runoff included a contested last-minute two-hour extension of voting, granted by Lula's former defense attorney.
Key facts
- MB election-day volumes: USDT +~800%, bitcoin +865% vs. prior Sunday; corporate accounts 78%, retail 22% (Mercado Bitcoin, via CoinDesk).
- Cross-venue (Biscoint, 10 exchanges): USDT/BRL +150%, USDC +318%; Monday USDT+USDC ≈1.84B reais ($350M), +65% (CoinDesk).
- Monday markets: Ibovespa −14% (worst since March 2020); dollar +8% vs. real (biggest gain since 1999) (CoinDesk).
- Kalshi's Oct. 24 preview put Bolsonaro at 84%; Kalshi and Polymarket have been blocked in Brazil since April (CoinDesk).
The real-world read The headline surge figures come from Mercado Bitcoin itself — an interested party touting activity on its own platform, and off a quiet Sunday base, so the percentages flatter. The broader direction is partly corroborated by Biscoint across 10 venues and by Binance's BTC/BRL jump against a falling global pair. MB research analyst Pedro Fontes framed the episode as proof you shouldn't "rely only on the real" and that stablecoins are "a simple way to dollarize" — a reasonable point, but it is an exchange's own analyst making the case for using the exchange's product. Treat it as commentary, not neutral analysis.
Opinion, and whose Fontes (MB) argues stronger congressional opposition and fiscal strain reinforce the appeal of globally priced assets. On the prediction-market miss, TxODDS CEO Einar Knobel told CoinDesk he wouldn't read it as a failure: "The mechanism did what it is designed to do with the information it was given."
This is news coverage, not financial advice.