Blowout October jobs report revives December Fed hike bets; bitcoin holds near $75,800

The U.S. economy added 165,000 jobs in October, more than double the roughly 65,000 economists had penciled in, according to the government's Nonfarm Payrolls Report as reported by CoinDesk. The unemployment rate slipped to 4.1%, against forecasts for 4.2% and September's 4.2%. September's initially reported 29,000 gain was revised up to 60,000.

Wage growth also ran hot: average hourly earnings rose 0.4% on the month (versus 0.3% expected) and 3.1% year-over-year (versus 2.9% expected), per the same report. On every line, the data came in stronger than the consensus.

The market reaction was muted in crypto and sharper in rates. Bitcoin was down a hair just after the release, trading at $75,800, per CoinDesk; the price followed an AI-led equity selloff earlier in the week and a recovery back above $76,000 before the data. Nasdaq 100 futures held a 1.5% gain, and the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield rose 6.4 basis points to 4.894%.

The policy read is the story here. Note the direction: markets are weighing a rate hike at the Fed's final meeting next month, not a cut. CoinDesk reports that, amid the equity rout, traders had trimmed the odds of a December hike to about 70% from roughly 95% weeks earlier. A strong jobs print puts that bet back in play — though CoinDesk notes next week's CPI and PPI inflation reports, and whether stocks stabilize, will likely matter more to the Fed's decision.

Key facts

• October nonfarm payrolls: +165,000 vs. ~65,000 estimate (Nonfarm Payrolls Report, via CoinDesk).
• Unemployment rate: 4.1%, down from 4.2% (via CoinDesk).
• September payrolls revised up to 60,000 from 29,000 (via CoinDesk).
• Average hourly earnings: +0.4% m/m, +3.1% y/y (via CoinDesk).
• Bitcoin ~$75,800 just after the release; 10-year yield +6.4bps to 4.894%; Nasdaq 100 futures +1.5% (via CoinDesk).
• December rate-hike odds had fallen to ~70% from ~95% weeks earlier (via CoinDesk).

The real-world read

This is one secondary account of a government data release; the underlying payrolls figures are primary and verifiable against the Bureau of Labor Statistics, but the market levels and the rate-hike odds are CoinDesk's snapshot from a single moment and will have moved. The odds figure in particular is a read of futures pricing, not a Fed signal — the central bank has said nothing. CoinDesk itself flags that inflation data due next week is the more important input, which is a fair caution against treating one strong jobs print as decisive. Worth noting the unusual regime: rate-hike risk, not cuts, with bitcoin trading in the mid-$70,000s after a tech-driven selloff and ETF outflows cited elsewhere in CoinDesk's coverage.

Opinion, and whose

CoinDesk's assessment: the report "surely puts a December rate hike in play," but next week's CPI and PPI and the stock market's stability "could prove more important" to the Fed. That is CoinDesk's framing, not confirmed policy.

Not financial advice.

Sources: CoinDesk, "U.S. added 165,000 jobs in October, blowing past 65,000 estimate" (Nov. 6, 2026) — reported the jobs data, market levels, and rate-hike odds. No sponsored or marketing material was used in this item.