$2.5B in Bitcoin Call Spreads Bet on $72,000 by July 31 — Right After the Fed Meets

July 18, 2026·4 min readSourced · no paid placements

Large traders have placed a concentrated options bet that bitcoin will climb to $72,000 by the end of July, with the trade timed to settle two days after the Federal Reserve's next rate decision, CoinDesk reported on July 18, citing Deribit flow data.

The structure is a bull call spread. According to Deribit, traders bought 20,000 contracts of the $70,000 call expiring July 31 and simultaneously sold 20,000 contracts of the $72,000 call at the same expiry. Each contract represents one bitcoin, putting the notional value of the 40,000 contracts at about $2.5 billion. The position pays off if bitcoin rises toward $70,000, but caps gains above $72,000 in exchange for a lower entry cost — a bet on a moderate rise, not a moonshot.

Bitcoin traded around $64,089 at the time of CoinDesk's report, up from under $58,000 earlier in July. To hit the trade's target, BTC would need to gain roughly 12% in under two weeks.

The timing is the story. The July 31 settlement falls two days after the Fed's July 29 rate decision. Fed funds futures currently favor a hold, with most trackers putting the odds of the benchmark staying at 3.5%–3.75% in the 75%–80% range, per CoinDesk; the rest is split between a hike and, less so, a cut. Rate-hike fears eased after June inflation data showed sharp deceleration at the consumer and producer levels — though core inflation, stripping food and energy, was flat, and much of the relief came from an oil pullback tied to a U.S.–Iran ceasefire.

That ceasefire has since frayed. CoinDesk notes fresh strikes this week disrupted oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz, sending WTI and Brent to their sharpest gains since March.

Key facts

~$2.5B notional in BTC call spreads bought on Deribit; 20,000 × $70,000 calls bought, 20,000 × $72,000 calls sold, both expiring July 31 (Deribit, via CoinDesk).
BTC price ~$64,089 at report time, up from under $58,000 earlier in July (CoinDesk).
Fed decision July 29; market-implied odds of a hold at 3.5%–3.75%: ~75%–80% (fed funds futures, via CoinDesk).
Oil surged this week on renewed Strait of Hormuz disruption; WTI and Brent posted their biggest gains since March (CoinDesk).

The real-world read

Deribit's own chief commercial officer, Jean-David Péquignot, confirmed "some large blocks in BTC topside call spreads" this week — worth noting he runs the exchange the trade sits on, so it's an interested party describing flow on its own venue. The "$72,000 target" is an inference from strike selection, not a stated view from the traders, who aren't named; the position is more accurately a directional wager between $70,000 and $72,000, and CoinDesk itself only says options flow of this size "often" reflects institutional rather than retail activity — a characterization, not a confirmation. Left unsaid: a call spread also loses if bitcoin stays flat or falls, and CoinDesk flags that this week's oil flare-up postdates the June inflation data the bullish case leans on, which some analysts now call "backward-looking." One venue's flow is not a market consensus.

Opinion, and whose

CoinDesk reads the flow as some large traders expecting the July 29 Fed meeting to act as a catalyst toward $72,000. Unnamed analysts cited by CoinDesk urge caution, arguing June's inflation relief is backward-looking given this week's oil spike. Fed funds futures markets, per CoinDesk, lean toward a hold. None of these are settled facts about where bitcoin will trade.

Sources

CoinDesk (July 18, 2026), "Massive bitcoin call spreads target $72,000 by month end, right when the Fed meets" — sole source for the options flow, price levels, Fed odds and oil context; secondary reporting citing Deribit data and a Deribit executive. No corroborating independent source was available, and the underlying flow figures originate with Deribit, the exchange hosting the trade.

This is news, not financial advice; nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell.