South Korea's budget office pegs stablecoin savings for merchants at up to $3.8B — and lists the risks in the same breath

South Korea's National Assembly Budget Office says a won-denominated stablecoin could save the country's merchants somewhere between 370 billion won (about $275 million) and 5.15 trillion won (about $3.8 billion) a year in payment fees, according to CoinDesk, which reported the parliamentary office's analysis on September 8.

That spread is not a rounding error — the top figure is roughly 14 times the bottom. The office arrived at it by varying two assumptions: how much card spending actually shifts to stablecoin rails, and what those systems charge. In other words, $3.8 billion is the optimistic corner of a wide range, not a central estimate. CoinDesk's headline leads with that ceiling.

The same analysis pairs the upside with warnings. Money leaving bank deposits for stablecoins could erode banks' role as credit intermediaries, the office said. A wave of redemptions could force issuers to dump reserve assets, breaking a token's peg and denting confidence. Its recommendations: reserve requirements, limits on stablecoin rewards, and stronger oversight of tokens deemed a financial-stability risk.

The domestic-issuer question remains unsettled. Per CoinDesk, earlier negotiations split the Bank of Korea — which favored issuers at least 51% bank-owned — from the Financial Services Commission, which warned that tight restrictions would stifle innovation. That dispute is not resolved.

Context the office supplied: dollar-linked stablecoins made up 98.8% of the $312.3 billion global market in July, so a won-backed coin is framed as a domestic counterweight. South Korea's first major crypto investor-protection law took effect in July 2024. The FSC plans to expand tokenized securities starting February 2027, later linking them to stablecoin payment rails.

Key facts

• Estimated annual merchant fee savings: 370 billion won ($275M) to 5.15 trillion won ($3.8B), depending on adoption and fee assumptions — National Assembly Budget Office, via CoinDesk.
• Dollar-linked stablecoins were 98.8% of the $312.3B global market in July — Budget Office, via CoinDesk.
• Issuer control disputed: Bank of Korea wants ≥51% bank ownership; FSC opposes tight limits — via CoinDesk.
• Tokenized-securities expansion slated for February 2027 — FSC, via CoinDesk.
• A Bank of Korea study this month found local-currency/dollar-stablecoin trading on Binance can push local currencies lower — via CoinDesk.

The real-world read

This is a legislative-support analysis, not a policy or a rollout — no won stablecoin exists yet, and the office's own numbers say the payoff could be a modest $275 million rather than the headline $3.8 billion. The framing worth noting is the headline's: it foregrounds the best case from a range whose floor is one-fourteenth as large. Notably, the office itself is not cheerleading — it spent as much space on deposit flight, peg breaks and redemption runs as on savings, and asked for reserve rules and reward caps. Unresolved: who gets to issue these tokens, the exact fee assumptions behind each end of the range, and how a won coin would coexist with the dollar tokens that dominate 98.8% of the market.

Opinion, and whose

The $275M–$3.8B savings and the stability warnings are the Budget Office's estimates, not settled outcomes. The claim that restrictions would hinder innovation is the FSC's position; the case for bank-controlled issuance is the Bank of Korea's.

Not financial advice.

Sources

• CoinDesk (Tier 2, secondary), Sept 8, 2026 — sole reporting for this item; relayed the National Assembly Budget Office's analysis (the primary source), the fee-savings range, stability warnings, market-share figures, the issuer dispute, and the tokenized-securities timeline. No marketing or sponsored material.