CLARITY Act's odds hit a record low on Polymarket as Senate ethics fight drags
Polymarket traders now give the CLARITY Act just a 32% chance of becoming law this year — a record low — as Senate talks stall over a bipartisan ethics provision.
Bettors on the prediction market Polymarket now put the odds of the CLARITY Act — the crypto market-structure bill — becoming law by year-end at 32%, its lowest reading since the market opened on Jan. 11, according to CoinDesk. That's down roughly 30 percentage points from launch and off a Feb. 19 high of 82%, with the slide steepening since early May as the Senate's calendar tightened.
The sticking point is an ethics provision. CoinDesk reports Senate negotiations remain focused on winning Democratic votes, and that a bipartisan ethics measure addressing conflicts of interest involving public officials and digital assets has emerged as the biggest obstacle. Sen. Ruben Gallego (D-Ariz.) — one of two Democrats who voted the bill out of the Senate Banking Committee — has repeatedly said he won't back it on the floor without such language. As of Friday, none had emerged.
Behind the scenes, lawmakers were said earlier this month to be finalizing updated bill text, expected the following week, that had yet to win Democratic support. President Donald Trump was expected to meet Senate Republicans on Thursday to discuss the bill; as of Friday there was no public readout.
The bill itself would draw a federal line between digital assets overseen by the SEC and those regulated as commodities by the CFTC. At a House hearing Friday marking one year since that chamber passed the legislation, industry executives pressed for action — testimony that is advocacy, not neutral analysis.
Key facts
- Polymarket odds of CLARITY passing by year-end: 32%, a record low (CoinDesk, as of Friday, July 17).
- Prior range: launched Jan. 11; peaked at 82% on Feb. 19; down ~30 points from launch.
- Chief obstacle: a bipartisan ethics provision; Sen. Gallego won't support the floor bill without it (CoinDesk).
- Trump–Senate Republican meeting expected Thursday; no public readout as of Friday (CoinDesk).
The real-world read
Read the odds for what they are: a bet, not a forecast. Polymarket is an interested party — a trading venue quoting its own market — and the number reflects sentiment, not vote counts.
CoinDesk's own copy is internally inconsistent: it repeatedly frames the deadline as "the end of 2025" while citing a market resolving on Dec. 31, 2026. The 2026 date is the one tied to the quoted odds; the "2025" references appear to be errors.
Note who's talking. The executives urging passage — Nova Labs, Bullish, WisdomTree, Coin Center — are the regulated industry lobbying for its preferred rules; treat "clarity, not deregulation" as a stakeholder frame. And CoinDesk discloses that Bullish, whose executive testified, is its corporate parent. The story leans entirely on secondary reporting; no primary filing, roll-call, or the White House confirmed the meeting's substance.
This is news reporting, not financial or legal advice.
Sources
- CoinDesk (Tier 2, secondary), July 17, 2026 — Polymarket odds and history, Senate ethics-provision dynamics, Gallego's position, the Trump meeting, and Friday's House hearing testimony. Discloses Bullish is its corporate parent; the executive testimony it quotes is industry advocacy, not neutral sourcing.